The likelihood ratio test for cointegration ranks in the I(2) model

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This paper presents the likelihood ratio (LR) test for the number of cointegrating relations in the I(2) vector autoregressive model. It is shown that the asymptotic distribution of the LR test for the cointegration ranks is identical to the asymptotic distribution of the much applied test statistic based on the two-step estimation procedure in Johansen (1995, Econometric Theory 11, 25-59), Paruolo (1996, Journal of Econometrics 72, 313-356), and Rahbek, Kongsted, and Jørgensen (1999, Journal of Econometrics 90, 265-289). By construction the LR test statistic is smaller than the non-LR test statistic from the two-step procedure, and application of the LR test may change rank selection in empirical work. Based on a study of existing empirical applications and related Monte Carlo simulations we conclude that the LR test has much better size properties when compared to the two-step-based test. Overall, we propose use of the LR test for rank determination in I(2) analysis
Original languageEnglish
JournalEconometric Theory
Volume23
Issue number4
Pages (from-to)615-637
ISSN0266-4666
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2007

ID: 1385526