The Impact of the Global Commodity and Financial Crises on Poverty in Vietnam

Research output: Working paperResearch

  • James Thurlow
  • Tarp, Finn
  • Simon McCoy
  • Manh Hai Nguyen
  • Clemens Breisinger
  • Channing Arndt
Economic growth in Vietnam has been fairly resilient to the global commodity and financial crises, but it is unclear why. In addition, the impact of the crises on employment and poverty is in dispute. We develop a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to decompose impacts and estimate distributional outcomes. Our results indicate that the 2008 commodity crisis increased employment and reduced poverty by favouring labour-intensive exports, especially in agriculture. The 2009 financial crisis reversed these gains. It pushed more than a million workers into unemployment and about 3 million people below the US$2-a-day poverty line, with the vast majority of these being rural dwellers. The net effect of the crises left Vietnam..
Original languageEnglish
PublisherUNU-WIDER
Number of pages20
Publication statusPublished - 2010
SeriesWIDER Working Paper
Number98
Volume2010

ID: 164385756