How Economic Crises Affect Inflation Beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 Pandemic

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Standard

How Economic Crises Affect Inflation Beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 Pandemic. / Skandalis, Daphné Jocelyne; Armantier, Olivier; Pomerantz, Rachel; Smith, Kyle; Topa, Giorgio; van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Kosar, Gizem.

In: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Vol. 189, 09.2021, p. 443-469.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Harvard

Skandalis, DJ, Armantier, O, Pomerantz, R, Smith, K, Topa, G, van der Klaauw, W & Kosar, G 2021, 'How Economic Crises Affect Inflation Beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 Pandemic', Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, vol. 189, pp. 443-469. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.04.036

APA

Skandalis, D. J., Armantier, O., Pomerantz, R., Smith, K., Topa, G., van der Klaauw, W., & Kosar, G. (2021). How Economic Crises Affect Inflation Beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 Pandemic. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 189, 443-469. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.04.036

Vancouver

Skandalis DJ, Armantier O, Pomerantz R, Smith K, Topa G, van der Klaauw W et al. How Economic Crises Affect Inflation Beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 Pandemic. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. 2021 Sep;189:443-469. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.04.036

Author

Skandalis, Daphné Jocelyne ; Armantier, Olivier ; Pomerantz, Rachel ; Smith, Kyle ; Topa, Giorgio ; van der Klaauw, Wilbert ; Kosar, Gizem. / How Economic Crises Affect Inflation Beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 Pandemic. In: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. 2021 ; Vol. 189. pp. 443-469.

Bibtex

@article{d7cfa98d384b438e9b8a329b5b564b94,
title = "How Economic Crises Affect Inflation Beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 Pandemic",
abstract = "This paper studies how inflation beliefs reported in the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations have evolved over the first six months of the Covid-19 pandemic. We find that household inflation expectations responded slowly and mostly at the short-term horizon. In contrast, the data reveal immediate and unprecedented increases in individual inflation uncertainty and in inflation disagreement across respondents. Consistent with precautionary saving, the rise in inflation uncertainty is shown to be associated with how respondents used the stimulus checks they received as part of the 2020 CARES Act. We also find evidence of a strong polarization in inflation beliefs and we identify differences across demographic groups.",
keywords = "Faculty of Social Sciences, inflation expectations, inflation uncertainty and disagreement, COVID-19 pandemic",
author = "Skandalis, {Daphn{\'e} Jocelyne} and Olivier Armantier and Rachel Pomerantz and Kyle Smith and Giorgio Topa and {van der Klaauw}, Wilbert and Gizem Kosar",
year = "2021",
month = sep,
doi = "10.1016/j.jebo.2021.04.036",
language = "English",
volume = "189",
pages = "443--469",
journal = "Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization",
issn = "0167-2681",
publisher = "Elsevier",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - How Economic Crises Affect Inflation Beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 Pandemic

AU - Skandalis, Daphné Jocelyne

AU - Armantier, Olivier

AU - Pomerantz, Rachel

AU - Smith, Kyle

AU - Topa, Giorgio

AU - van der Klaauw, Wilbert

AU - Kosar, Gizem

PY - 2021/9

Y1 - 2021/9

N2 - This paper studies how inflation beliefs reported in the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations have evolved over the first six months of the Covid-19 pandemic. We find that household inflation expectations responded slowly and mostly at the short-term horizon. In contrast, the data reveal immediate and unprecedented increases in individual inflation uncertainty and in inflation disagreement across respondents. Consistent with precautionary saving, the rise in inflation uncertainty is shown to be associated with how respondents used the stimulus checks they received as part of the 2020 CARES Act. We also find evidence of a strong polarization in inflation beliefs and we identify differences across demographic groups.

AB - This paper studies how inflation beliefs reported in the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations have evolved over the first six months of the Covid-19 pandemic. We find that household inflation expectations responded slowly and mostly at the short-term horizon. In contrast, the data reveal immediate and unprecedented increases in individual inflation uncertainty and in inflation disagreement across respondents. Consistent with precautionary saving, the rise in inflation uncertainty is shown to be associated with how respondents used the stimulus checks they received as part of the 2020 CARES Act. We also find evidence of a strong polarization in inflation beliefs and we identify differences across demographic groups.

KW - Faculty of Social Sciences

KW - inflation expectations

KW - inflation uncertainty and disagreement

KW - COVID-19 pandemic

U2 - 10.1016/j.jebo.2021.04.036

DO - 10.1016/j.jebo.2021.04.036

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 34518713

VL - 189

SP - 443

EP - 469

JO - Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

JF - Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

SN - 0167-2681

ER -

ID: 292091398