Data Revisions and the Statistical Relation of Global Mean Sea Level and Surface Temperature

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Documents

We study the stability of estimated linear statistical relations of global mean temperature and global mean sea level with regard to data revisions. Using four different model specifications proposed in the literature, we compare coefficient estimates and long-term sea level projections using two different vintages of each of the annual time series, covering the periods 1880-2001 and 1880-2013. We find that temperature and sea level updates and revisions have a substantial influence both on the magnitude of the estimated coefficients of influence (differences of up to 50%) and therefore on long-term projections of sea level rise following the RCP4.5 and RCP6 scenarios (differences of up to 40 cm by the year 2100). This shows that in order to replicate earlier results that informed the scientific discussion and motivated policy recommendations, it is crucial to have access to and to work with the data vintages used at the time.

Original languageEnglish
Article number41
JournalEconometrics
Volume8
Issue number4
Number of pages19
ISSN2225-1146
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2020

    Research areas

  • sea level, temperature, semi-empirical models, data revisions, IMPACT, STABILIZATION, PATHWAY, TRENDS, RISE

Number of downloads are based on statistics from Google Scholar and www.ku.dk


No data available

ID: 255346972