TY - JOUR

T1 - Poverty and Vulnerability in Mozambique

T2 - An Analysis of Dynamics and Correlates in Light of the Covid-19 Crisis Using Synthetic Panels

AU - Salvucci, Vincenzo

AU - Tarp, Finn

PY - 2021

Y1 - 2021

N2 - This study aims at providing new insights into poverty, vulnerability, and their correlates in Mozambique, applying synthetic panels techniques and expanding on earlier analyses. Our results suggest that there is a high degree of poverty immobility, especially in rural areas in the northern and central regions and for low- educated people. Even nonpoor households are at a high risk to vulnerability, and this risk does not differ much for households in urban/rural areas or in different regions or with different education levels. We also observe that a large portion of the population remains in or out of poverty over the entire year, with a higher percentage of individuals moving into poverty between the dry and the rainy seasons and a nonnegligible proportion of vulnerable people not managing to revert to nonpoverty in the subsequent dry season. Overall, these findings are highly relevant for designing anti- poverty policies and strategies, as they provide information on intra- year shocks and on some of the characteristics related to upward and downward mobility over longer time spans, also with regard to the recent Covid- 19 and other recent shocks suffered by the country.

AB - This study aims at providing new insights into poverty, vulnerability, and their correlates in Mozambique, applying synthetic panels techniques and expanding on earlier analyses. Our results suggest that there is a high degree of poverty immobility, especially in rural areas in the northern and central regions and for low- educated people. Even nonpoor households are at a high risk to vulnerability, and this risk does not differ much for households in urban/rural areas or in different regions or with different education levels. We also observe that a large portion of the population remains in or out of poverty over the entire year, with a higher percentage of individuals moving into poverty between the dry and the rainy seasons and a nonnegligible proportion of vulnerable people not managing to revert to nonpoverty in the subsequent dry season. Overall, these findings are highly relevant for designing anti- poverty policies and strategies, as they provide information on intra- year shocks and on some of the characteristics related to upward and downward mobility over longer time spans, also with regard to the recent Covid- 19 and other recent shocks suffered by the country.

KW - Faculty of Social Sciences

KW - Mozambique

KW - poverty

KW - poverty dynamics

KW - synthetic panels

KW - vulnerability

U2 - 10.1111/rode.12835

DO - 10.1111/rode.12835

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 34908904

VL - 25

SP - 1895

EP - 1918

JO - Review of Development Economics

JF - Review of Development Economics

SN - 1363-6669

IS - 4

ER -