Ola Olsson, University of Gothenburg

"Climate change and political instability in the Roman Empire and in Europe"

Abstract

Climatic conditions and extreme weather can severely affect societal stability, as harvest failures may turn elites and populations against their leaders. While research has studied such processes in modern times using quantitative data, generalizable insights on historical time-periods remain limited because of reliance on small-n studies. We advance the literature by studying how new measures of weather anomalies affect 1) political stability (emperor exits and the presence of co-rulers and usurpers) in the Roman empire and 2) regular and irregular exits of leaders in Europe, 1000-1900. In 1), we also analyze potential intermediate channels such as the impact of climate variations on mining/economic activity and famines. In 2), we link grid-level data on deviations in temperature and precipitation with a new comprehensive register of the disposal of leaders. We show that such climate events matter for leader tenure. Our findings corroborate and quantify the expectation that climate shocks can shorten the tenure of rulers.

For more information about Ola Olsson and his interesting work - link to his website.

Contact person: Pablo Selaya