Simon Trimborn, University of Amsterdam

"The geographic origins of blockchain transactions"

Abstract

We investigate the transaction patterns of users by their geographical origin and design a Random Forest based prediction index for the share of transactions per region. Theoretical research has shown that blockchain information matter for the valuation of cryptocurrencies and empirical research relies solely on global measures given the anonymity of blockchain transactions. But Bitcoin adoption differs globally, hence differences in the relevance of regions is only natural. Using the index, trained on a unique dataset spanning 5 years of blockchain transactions and their associated geographical origin, we propose region-specific blockchain metrics. Research has shown that market dynamics matter for users choices of their transaction fees. We show that this effect differs by region. We further show that region-specific blockchain metrics improve market modeling and forecasting as compared to the global metrics.

Contact person: Stefan Voigt