Partisan Optimism and Political Bargaining

Research output: Working paperResearch

Partisan voters are optimistic about electoral outcomes: their estimates of the probability of electoral success for their party or candidate are substantially higher than the average among the electorate. This has large potential implications for political bargaining. Optimism about future electoral outcomes can make costly bargaining delay look more favorable, which may induce partisans to punish their party for agreeing to a compromise rather than waiting, for example by not turning out to vote. Therefore, party decision makers should take optimism among partisans into account when bargaining. In this paper we use game theoretic modeling to explore the implications of partisan optimism for political bargaining. We show that increased optimism among a partisan group leads to a stronger bargaining position for their party, but may hurt its electoral prospects. Another main finding is that even high levels of partisan optimism do not necessarily cause inefficient bargaining delay
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationKbh.
PublisherØkonomisk institut, Københavns Universitet
Number of pages25
Publication statusPublished - 2014
SeriesUniversity of Copenhagen. Institute of Economics. Discussion Papers (Online)
Number05
Volume2014
ISSN1601-2461

Bibliographical note

JEL Classification: D72

ID: 104026751