Merchandise export diversification strategy for Tanzania: promoting inclusive growth, economic complexity and structural change
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Merchandise export diversification strategy for Tanzania: promoting inclusive growth, economic complexity and structural change. / Hansen, Christian Estmann; Sørensen, Bjørn Bo; Ndulu, Benno; Rand, John.
The World Economy : Wiley, 2022.Research output: Book/Report › Report › Research › peer-review
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TY - RPRT
T1 - Merchandise export diversification strategy for Tanzania: promoting inclusive growth, economic complexity and structural change
AU - Hansen, Christian Estmann
AU - Sørensen, Bjørn Bo
AU - Ndulu, Benno
AU - Rand, John
PY - 2022/2/12
Y1 - 2022/2/12
N2 - This paper identifies industries in Tanzania that are critical for (i) upgrading and diversifying the economy, (ii) increasing export revenue and (iii) absorbing labour. First, a Product Space analysis identifies industrial niches, which Tanzania should promote to increase economic complexity and stimulate structural transformation. The identification of industries is based on a supply-side network method following the literature on economic complexity. Second, we combine the complexity analysis with a gravity model, identifying industries with high, demand-driven export potential. In combination, the supply-and-demand framework finds industries that are complex, feasible to target given Tanzania's existing know-how and profitable to export given product-specific trade resistance and geographically dispersed demand. Third, we construct an employment absorption index to identify industries with a high labour intensity. Our findings suggest a high export potential and scope for learning spillovers in complex sectors, such as machinery and chemicals. In contrast, less complex sectors, such as agro-processing, metal and wood, are correlated with higher employment creation.
AB - This paper identifies industries in Tanzania that are critical for (i) upgrading and diversifying the economy, (ii) increasing export revenue and (iii) absorbing labour. First, a Product Space analysis identifies industrial niches, which Tanzania should promote to increase economic complexity and stimulate structural transformation. The identification of industries is based on a supply-side network method following the literature on economic complexity. Second, we combine the complexity analysis with a gravity model, identifying industries with high, demand-driven export potential. In combination, the supply-and-demand framework finds industries that are complex, feasible to target given Tanzania's existing know-how and profitable to export given product-specific trade resistance and geographically dispersed demand. Third, we construct an employment absorption index to identify industries with a high labour intensity. Our findings suggest a high export potential and scope for learning spillovers in complex sectors, such as machinery and chemicals. In contrast, less complex sectors, such as agro-processing, metal and wood, are correlated with higher employment creation.
UR - https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/twec.13255
U2 - 10.1111/twec.13255
DO - 10.1111/twec.13255
M3 - Report
BT - Merchandise export diversification strategy for Tanzania: promoting inclusive growth, economic complexity and structural change
PB - Wiley
CY - The World Economy
ER -
ID: 312643016