Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Standard

Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia. / Sheridan, Adam; Andersen, Asger Lau; Hansen, Emil Toft; Johannesen, Niels.

In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 117, No. 34, 25.08.2020, p. 20468-20473.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Harvard

Sheridan, A, Andersen, AL, Hansen, ET & Johannesen, N 2020, 'Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 117, no. 34, pp. 20468-20473. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2010068117

APA

Sheridan, A., Andersen, A. L., Hansen, E. T., & Johannesen, N. (2020). Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117(34), 20468-20473. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2010068117

Vancouver

Sheridan A, Andersen AL, Hansen ET, Johannesen N. Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2020 Aug 25;117(34):20468-20473. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2010068117

Author

Sheridan, Adam ; Andersen, Asger Lau ; Hansen, Emil Toft ; Johannesen, Niels. / Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2020 ; Vol. 117, No. 34. pp. 20468-20473.

Bibtex

@article{d30a16c3dd504db1ac565b1d6d5b8726,
title = "Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia",
abstract = "This paper uses real-time transaction data from a large bank in Scandinavia to estimate the effect of social distancing laws on consumer spending in the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The analysis exploits a natural experiment to disentangle the effects of the virus and the laws aiming to contain it: Denmark and Sweden were similarly exposed to the pandemic but only Denmark imposed significant restrictions on social and economic activities. We estimate that aggregate spending dropped by around 25% (95% CI: 24 to 26%) in Sweden and, as a result of the shutdown, by 4 additional percentage points (95% CI: 3 to 5 percentage points [p.p.]) in Denmark. This suggests that most of the economic contraction is caused by the virus itself and occurs regardless of social distancing laws. The age gradient in the estimates suggests that social distancing reinforces the virus-induced drop in spending for low-health-risk individuals but attenuates it for high-risk individuals by lowering the overall prevalence of the virus in the society.",
keywords = "Consumer spending, COVID-19, Shutdown |, Social distancing",
author = "Adam Sheridan and Andersen, {Asger Lau} and Hansen, {Emil Toft} and Niels Johannesen",
note = "This article contains supporting information online at https://www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.2010068117/-/DCSupplemental.",
year = "2020",
month = aug,
day = "25",
doi = "10.1073/pnas.2010068117",
language = "English",
volume = "117",
pages = "20468--20473",
journal = "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",
issn = "0027-8424",
publisher = "The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",
number = "34",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia

AU - Sheridan, Adam

AU - Andersen, Asger Lau

AU - Hansen, Emil Toft

AU - Johannesen, Niels

N1 - This article contains supporting information online at https://www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.2010068117/-/DCSupplemental.

PY - 2020/8/25

Y1 - 2020/8/25

N2 - This paper uses real-time transaction data from a large bank in Scandinavia to estimate the effect of social distancing laws on consumer spending in the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The analysis exploits a natural experiment to disentangle the effects of the virus and the laws aiming to contain it: Denmark and Sweden were similarly exposed to the pandemic but only Denmark imposed significant restrictions on social and economic activities. We estimate that aggregate spending dropped by around 25% (95% CI: 24 to 26%) in Sweden and, as a result of the shutdown, by 4 additional percentage points (95% CI: 3 to 5 percentage points [p.p.]) in Denmark. This suggests that most of the economic contraction is caused by the virus itself and occurs regardless of social distancing laws. The age gradient in the estimates suggests that social distancing reinforces the virus-induced drop in spending for low-health-risk individuals but attenuates it for high-risk individuals by lowering the overall prevalence of the virus in the society.

AB - This paper uses real-time transaction data from a large bank in Scandinavia to estimate the effect of social distancing laws on consumer spending in the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The analysis exploits a natural experiment to disentangle the effects of the virus and the laws aiming to contain it: Denmark and Sweden were similarly exposed to the pandemic but only Denmark imposed significant restrictions on social and economic activities. We estimate that aggregate spending dropped by around 25% (95% CI: 24 to 26%) in Sweden and, as a result of the shutdown, by 4 additional percentage points (95% CI: 3 to 5 percentage points [p.p.]) in Denmark. This suggests that most of the economic contraction is caused by the virus itself and occurs regardless of social distancing laws. The age gradient in the estimates suggests that social distancing reinforces the virus-induced drop in spending for low-health-risk individuals but attenuates it for high-risk individuals by lowering the overall prevalence of the virus in the society.

KW - Consumer spending

KW - COVID-19

KW - Shutdown |

KW - Social distancing

U2 - 10.1073/pnas.2010068117

DO - 10.1073/pnas.2010068117

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 32747573

AN - SCOPUS:85090075725

VL - 117

SP - 20468

EP - 20473

JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

SN - 0027-8424

IS - 34

ER -

ID: 252301693