Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment

Publikation: Working paperForskning

Dokumenter

  • Christine Laudenbach
  • Annika Weber
  • Johannes Wohlfart
We survey retail investors at an online bank to study beliefs about the autocorrelation of aggregate stock returns, and how these beliefs shape investment decisions measured in administrative account data. Individuals’ beliefs exhibit substantial
heterogeneity and predict trading responses to market movements. We inform a random half of our respondents that historically the autocorrelation of aggregate returns was close to zero, which persistently changes their beliefs. Among those
initially believing in mean reversion, treated respondents buy significantly less equity during the COVID-19 crash four months later. Our results highlight how heterogeneity in subjective models causally drives trade in asset markets.
OriginalsprogEngelsk
Antal sider76
StatusUdgivet - 16 nov. 2021
NavnCEBI Working Paper Series
Nummer17
Vol/bind21

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