How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?

Research output: Working paper › Research

Standard

How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior? / Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes.

2017.

Research output: Working paper › Research

Harvard

Roth, C & Wohlfart, J 2017 'How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?'. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3016052

APA

Roth, C., & Wohlfart, J. (2017). How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior? https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3016052

Vancouver

Roth C, Wohlfart J. How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior? 2017 Aug 10. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3016052

Author

Roth, Christopher ; Wohlfart, Johannes. / How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?. 2017.

Bibtex

@techreport{8aa905f2c60b4326a5e0e22b01680ca7,
title = "How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?",
abstract = "Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals{\textquoteright} macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents{\textquoteright} expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. Respondents update their macroeconomic outlook in response to the forecasts, extrapolate to expectations about their personal economic circumstances and adjust their consumption plans and stock purchases. Extrapolation to expectations about personal unemployment is driven by individuals with higher exposure to macroeconomic risk, consistent with macroeconomic models of imperfect information in which people are inattentive, but understand how the economy works. ",
keywords = "Expectation Formation, Information, Updating, Aggregate Uncertainty, Macroeconomic Conditions",
author = "Christopher Roth and Johannes Wohlfart",
year = "2017",
month = aug,
day = "10",
doi = "10.2139/ssrn.3016052",
language = "English",
type = "WorkingPaper",

}

RIS

TY - UNPB

T1 - How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?

AU - Roth, Christopher

AU - Wohlfart, Johannes

PY - 2017/8/10

Y1 - 2017/8/10

N2 - Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals’ macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents’ expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. Respondents update their macroeconomic outlook in response to the forecasts, extrapolate to expectations about their personal economic circumstances and adjust their consumption plans and stock purchases. Extrapolation to expectations about personal unemployment is driven by individuals with higher exposure to macroeconomic risk, consistent with macroeconomic models of imperfect information in which people are inattentive, but understand how the economy works.

AB - Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals’ macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents’ expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. Respondents update their macroeconomic outlook in response to the forecasts, extrapolate to expectations about their personal economic circumstances and adjust their consumption plans and stock purchases. Extrapolation to expectations about personal unemployment is driven by individuals with higher exposure to macroeconomic risk, consistent with macroeconomic models of imperfect information in which people are inattentive, but understand how the economy works.

KW - Expectation Formation

KW - Information

KW - Updating

KW - Aggregate Uncertainty

KW - Macroeconomic Conditions

U2 - 10.2139/ssrn.3016052

DO - 10.2139/ssrn.3016052

M3 - Working paper

BT - How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?

ER -

ID: 231947154